Make-vs-Buy · Fulfillment Decision Model

DTC coffee brand · 3PL vs in-house warehouse · 36-month forward projection reconstructed from 731 days of actual fulfillment history.

3-Year NPV · 3PL

—

outsourced

3-Year NPV · In-house

—

self-fulfill

Break-even month

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cumulative crossover

Recommendation

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lower 3-yr NPV

Assumption Sliders

Demand growth rate 1.0×

Cost of capital 12%

In-house staff cost (fully loaded) $48k

3PL pick-pack rate $3.25

Sliders recompute the entire model live. Defaults are reconstructed from the historical data; the 3PL pick-pack rate is the per-order fee (shipping stays at the data-derived $0.85/lb). Volume ±20% lives in the sensitivity view below.

Reconstructed Cost Base

Cumulative Cost Curves (36 months)

3PL cumulativeIn-house cumulativeBreak-even

Monthly Cost (Yr 1–3)

3PL / monthIn-house / month

Sensitivity · Volume ±20%

Volume	3PL NPV	In-house NPV	Δ (IH−3PL)	Break-even	Winner