Make vs. Buy Fulfillment • 36-Month Projection
DTC Coffee • Historical: 731 days • 3-yr NPV decision model
Assumptions (sliders)
Demand Growth Rate:
18
%/yr
Cost of Capital:
12
%
In-House Staff Cost: $
48000
/yr
3PL Per-Order Rate: $
4.85
Key Results
18
Break-even month
-$184k
In-House 3yr NPV
-$312k
3PL 3yr NPV
Recommendation: Bring fulfillment IN-HOUSE
Key drivers: 1) Strong volume growth (18% CAGR) drives scale economies 2) Lower variable shipping ($0.78/lb vs 3PL) 3) Break-even at month 18; NPV advantage $128k
Monthly Cost Projection
Cumulative Cash Outflow
Sensitivity: Volume +/-20%
Scenario
Break-even
3yr NPV Advantage
Decision
-20% volume
24
$42k
In-house
Base case
18
$128k
In-house
+20% volume
14
$219k
In-house
Model Notes
Historical demand extrapolated with trend + seasonality (holiday peaks)
In-house: 6 FTE base +1 per 8k orders/mo above 25k; 3-mo ramp @1.4x
3PL costs scaled from historical avg pickpack/shipping/storage
NPV uses monthly discounting at cost of capital; $99k capex at t=0
Shipping modeled at 2.4 lb/order avg from data