Fulfillment Make-vs-Buy DTC Coffee · 36-month projection

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Assumptions

3-Year Summary

3PL NPV
discounted cost
In-house NPV
incl. capex
Break-even
cumulative crossover
3-yr Savings
vs 3PL

Sensitivity · Volume shock

Monthly cost
Cumulative
Historical demand

Monthly projection (first 12 months)

MonthOrdersUnitsWt (lb) 3PL costIn-houseΔ
Model built from 731 days of reconstructed fulfillment history. In-house option assumes 12,000 sq ft @ $1.15/sq ft/mo (3-yr lease), $14k fit-out, $85k equipment (7-yr depr.), 6 FTE baseline + 1 FTE per 8k orders above 25k/mo, $1,400/mo WMS, $0.78/lb outbound shipping, 60% efficiency in months 1–3. All costs discounted at the selected cost of capital.