Model uses active rows for current MRR and already-churned rows to estimate baseline tier churn.
MRR / ARR projection: baseline vs strategies
Scenario assumptions
Revenue waterfall over 24 months
Bars show cumulative MRR movement from starting MRR to ending MRR. Select scenario:
Current-state customer mix and risks
Side-by-side comparison
Recommendation
Baseline assumptions: monthly new-customer growth is applied to current new logo MRR; expansion rate is derived from observed expansion MRR and can be adjusted. Strategy A applies a 25% price lift plus tier-specific churn deltas and a 10% conversion penalty. Strategy B adds usage revenue to adopting Pro/Business customers. Strategy C force-migrates Starter to Team at $49 with migration churn.