36-month projection3PL vs in-house

DTC Coffee Fulfillment Make-vs-Buy Model

Interactive operating model built from 731 days of fulfillment history: demand trend/seasonality, observed 3PL cost base, and a fully burdened in-house warehouse scenario.

Recommendation

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Break-even

—

cumulative in-house less 3PL

3PL NPV

—

discounted 36-month cost

In-house NPV

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incl. capex, ramp and lease

Recommendation

Calculating…

Model notes: in-house uses 12,000 sq ft at $1.15/sq ft/mo, $14k fit-out, $85k equipment depreciated over 7 years, WMS at $1.4k/mo, negotiated parcel rate of $0.78/lb, 6 baseline FTE and 1 incremental FTE per 8k monthly orders above 25k. Months 1-3 carry a 40% ramp cost penalty.

Scenario Controls

Demand growth rate—

Cost of capital12.0%

In-house staff cost/FTE$48k

3PL per-order rate—

Optional: paste a replacement CSV into the hidden embeddedCsv textarea in this file; the model auto-parses columns date, orders, units_shipped, avg_order_weight_lb, returns, pickpack, shipping, storage_pallets, storage_cost.

Cumulative Cost Curves

Cumulative nominal cost over the next 36 months.

3PL cumulativeIn-house cumulative

Monthly Cost and Demand

Projected order volume with monthly make/buy costs.

Orders3PL monthlyIn-house monthly

Sensitivity: Volume +/-20%

Volume case	3PL NPV	In-house NPV	Savings from recommended	Recommendation

First 12 Projected Months

Month	Orders	3PL cost	In-house cost	Delta