\n\n\n\n\nCoffee DTC — Fulfillment Make vs. Buy Model\n\n\n\n
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Fulfillment Make vs. Buy Model

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Compare 3-year NPV of keeping a 3PL versus bringing fulfillment in-house.

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\n \n \n No file attached — using synthesized sample history.\n
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If you have the real CSV, upload it above. The model will rebuild the demand trend, seasonality, 3PL pick/pack rate, 3PL shipping rate, and storage cost from the file.

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Decision inputs

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In-house warehouse: 12,000 sq ft @ $1.15/sq ft/mo · $14k fit-out · $85k equipment capex · $1,400/mo WMS · $0.78/lb outbound shipping · 6 FTE base + 1 per 8k orders/mo above 25k · 3-month ramp penalty.
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3-year NPV outcome

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In-house NPV—
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3PL NPV—
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NPV savings—
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Break-even month—
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Avg monthly orders (mo 1)—
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Upfront in-house capex—
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Monthly operating cash cost projection

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\n In-house\n 3PL\n
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Cumulative cash cost curves

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\n In-house (incl. month-0 capex)\n 3PL\n
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Volume sensitivity: what if demand runs ±20%?

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ScenarioAvg monthly ordersIn-house NPV3PL NPVSavings (In-house − 3PL)Break-evenRecommendation
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Methodology & key drivers

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The model aggregates the daily CSV into calendar months, fits a log-linear trend to infer the underlying monthly growth rate, and extracts multiplicative seasonality indices by calendar month. Future demand is projected from the most recent month, grown at your chosen annual rate and multiplied by the seasonality index for that future calendar month. The 3PL cost base is reconstructed as pick/pack per order, shipping per lb, and storage per month. The in-house option is modeled as a cash-flow NPV with the $99k month-0 capex and discounted monthly operating cash costs.

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