Make vs. Buy — Fulfillment Decision Model
3-year NPV analysis · in-house vs. 3PL · based on 24 months of reconstructed operations data
COMPUTING…
Scenario Controls
Demand growth (YoY)
—
Cost of capital
—
Staff fully loaded ($/yr)
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3PL pickpack ($/order)
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Historical reconstruction (24 mo):
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Break-even (cumulative)
—
months from capex outlay
3PL 3-yr NPV (cost)
—
discounted cash outflows
In-house 3-yr NPV (cost)
—
includes $99K upfront capex
NPV advantage
—
in-house vs. 3PL
Cumulative fulfillment cost — 36 months
3PL
In-house
Cumulative savings
Monthly cost — 3PL vs. in-house
3PL monthly
In-house monthly
Volume Sensitivity (±20%)
Volume scenario
3PL NPV
In-house NPV
Δ (savings)
Rec.
Key Drivers of the Recommendation