Fulfillment Make-vs-Buy Model

Assumptions you can flex

Demand growth (monthly, deseasonalized)

−1%/mo+8%/mo

Cost of capital (annual)

4%25%

In-house staff (fully loaded)

$35k/yr$75k/yr

3PL pick/pack rate

$2.00/order$5.00/order

Monthly fulfillment cost — both options, 36 months forward

Buy · 3PL Make · In-house Break-even month Historical actual

Cumulative cash cost — where in-house overtakes the 3PL

Buy · cumulative Make · cumulative (incl. $99k upfront capex) Break-even

Sensitivity — does the call flip if volume runs ±20%?

Volume scenario	3-yr NPV · Buy	3-yr NPV · Make	Savings (Make)	Break-even	Recommend

The numbers behind the model (data-derived)

NPV discounts each month's cash outflow at the monthly equivalent of your cost-of-capital. We model on a cash basis: the $85k equipment + $14k fit-out are a single $99k upfront outflow (the correct basis for NPV & break-even), so the non-cash $85k/84mo depreciation is shown for reference only and excluded from cash flows. The 3PL's $3.25/order pick-pack, $0.85/lb shipping and $1.40/pallet/day storage are all reverse-engineered from the daily charges in the file.